Trump officials say they can avoid the issue of the 2020 census caused by controversial citizen issues. Experts are very skeptical

Trump officials say they can avoid the issue of the 2020 census

According to former agency officials and other research experts, the trump administration plans to address the serious deficiencies in the large number of people likely to emerge from the U.S. census in 2020.
At the end of last month, commerce secretary William wilberroth agreed with a controversial request from the justice department to raise a citizen issue in the once-a-decade census. Justice department officials said they needed more detailed information from each American to prevent discrimination based on the voting rights act of 1965.
Civil rights groups and others attacked the decision, predicting that new problems would prompt many immigrants to refuse to fill out forms. Critics argue that the resulting minority could be used to invalidate the census data that apportion congressional seats, and distribute three-quarters of the federal funds.
On March 26, issued a memo, on page 8 Ross critics assert that there is no evidence to support claims that new problems will result in lower response rate or a large amount of undervalued, cited several unnamed expert. But even if that happens, Ross said, the census bureau will be able to use has archived a large amount of information related to government employment, tax, health, education, housing and social welfare, etc., in order to obtain accurate information counter.
The science insider learned that at least three of Ross’s experts disagreed with him, and sometimes he objected strongly, and he decided to add the issue. They and other census experts believe that rose grossly underestimated the many technical and legal barriers to access and effective use of these data, known as administrative records. The April 1, 2020 census is unlikely to complete this process, they added, adding that a large number of minorities could become a reality.
“It will be very challenging… [and] it’s very difficult to reach that deadline as soon as possible, “said Amy o ‘hara, who until last fall instructed the census bureau to expand its use of administrative records. She is now a senior research scholar at Stanford university’s palo alto economic policy institute.
“This process for a layman, that sounds easy, but that is not the case,” said Herman, behrman, he is under President George Bush’s former chief of the census, now is the national academy of sciences, college of engineering national statistics committee of occasional consultant, and Washington, d.c., all medical data sets have mistakes, but they are not always very clear how to correct. Other experts point out that the more complex thing is that studies show that some immigrants do not tell the truth when they answer similar questions about citizens in another census.
A controversial request.
In December 2017, justice department officials argued that the data was insufficient to meet their needs. They especially claims that the American community survey (ACS) contains three parts caused by digital citizenship, using 72 question survey a year 3.5 million families, these problems have been considered a decade a census form for a long time, t provide enough detailed census piece covered.
Civil rights and immigration advocates see the request as a weak political move by republican President Donald trump’s administration. Critics argue that the most likely candidates for the 2020 census to miss the allocated congressional seats are likely to vote for the democratic candidate. Critics point out that former justice department officials were satisfied with the smaller sampling of the American population provided by ACS and never asked each resident to provide data. They also say that census officials do not have time to do a thorough job to determine the impact of the problem on the response rate and the overall accuracy of the ten-year census.
In his memo, rose said he accepted the goal of a “complete and accurate” census. And he weighs three options for achieving that goal – omitting the problem, adding the problem, but not using administrative records to support the results, or relying solely on administrative records.
Ross said he turned down all three people in favor of what he called “option D” : ask questions and use administrative records to fill any gaps. To that end, he said, the agency “is working to get as many additional federal and state administrative records as possible.”
Impossible tasks?
Experts say administrative records can be used to improve the accuracy of counting in a number of ways.

A common use is to identify a family that did not respond to a request for an investigation. For example, if the postal service or the tax records show that people living in the census main address file does not yet exist in the specific address, but no one the address to return the census forms, it will put the address as the following mailing address. The last resort is to send statisticians and sometimes knock on the door. (these operations are also the biggest cost of any 10-year census, which is expected to cost $15.6 billion by 2020.)
Another way the census bureau USES administrative records is to scrutinize the accuracy of the survey’s answers, or to fill gaps in the incomplete survey. But the process, which has never been tested in a 10-year census, is easier said than done by experts.
The first step, says O ‘hara, is to determine which institutions or commercial companies may have citizen data. Although the census bureau has the right to request data from other agencies, only the internal revenue service (IRS) is “forced to share its data”, she points out. As a result, census officials need to negotiate a data-sharing agreement with the second entity, which will also explain how to transmit data securely.
Even if another agency accepts such a deal, negotiations could take a long time. For example, she points out that the census bureau has been in negotiations with the department of veterans affairs for seven years to get a list of all the veterans available to validate ACS information.
The next hurdle is what Mr O ‘hara calls “unified data sources” – aggregating different sets of data in a way that can be used. In terms of citizenship, Mr. O ‘hara said, “I can’t estimate how difficult [unification] will be because the data has never been put together.”
On the issue of citizenship, Mr. O ‘hara speculated that census officials might first turn to social security records. She noted that the agency had used the “high quality data” to check age and gender, and to fill in missing racial and ethnic answers.
Unfortunately, these records have serious limitations on citizenship. Anyone with legal rights to work in the United States can get a social security card, even if they are not citizens. Mr O ‘hara said that, despite the government’s request for information on citizens, “when someone first applies, the document will never be updated because there is no need to do so”. In other words, a person’s immigration status may change, and the social security administration does not necessarily know.
Given the restrictions, she said, census officials may seek up-to-date information on immigration status from other federal agencies. This could mean trying to link their records to the irs or the U.S. citizenship and immigration service (CIS) taxpayers’ Numbers, which issue green CARDS as permanent residency. But, she says, “not necessarily” knows a person’s naturalization and working status.
Even if the name and date of birth may not be sufficient to allow the organization to track the required information, unless the record contains the current address. That’s because agency officials “need to be able to identify people with certain attributes somewhere,” to include them in a once-a-decade census, “Mr. O ‘hara said. “You have to connect these sil,” she stressed.
Another big challenge is what to do when the government records conflicting data that contain the same person. ‘the game is a good example,’ Mr. O ‘hara said. The researchers found that “people respond differently to racial and ethnic issues in a way that is problematic,” she noted. “I think the answer to the question of citizenship may be more complex.”



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